Analysts have been repeatedly (and incorrectly) calling the Bitcoin price bottom for over a year now, pretty much since prices started falling. So before diving headlong back into its murky waters, how can we be sure things are different this time?
Comparison To Other Bubble Bottoms
One way might be to look at great bottoms from history (I’m gonna let you make your own jokes) for comparison. That could seem like a reasonable place to start, at any rate. So what do we find?
In terms of value, bitcoin price has lost more from its peak than all of these bubbles other than the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1929. And in terms of speed, we would have hit bottom harder than all but Oil (2008) and Chinese Stocks (2015).
Of these examples, the NASDAQ bounced back hard, to double in the five years after bottom. However, the Japanese stock market crash led to a period of economic stagnation known as the lost decade/score. So it seems there is no consensus on how to judge bottoms, and how they will then play out.
And anyway, if…